2026 Projection
Candidate-based KPI model · 0 of 33 in-region seats scored · Party weight applied where seat dynamics warrant it
Historical Evidence Base
2021 post-tribunal results, 2016, 2011. All 45 seats in database.
Candidate Intelligence
Six-pillar KPI scorecard per seat. Candidate-based, party weight where relevant.
KPI Model + Confidence Classification
Ground 30% · Historical 20% · Religious 15% · Structural 15% · Candidate 15% · Social 5%
Final Adjudication
Manual review of toss-up seats. Published with confidence ratings.
Seats scored
0 / 33
In-region only
High confidence
0
0 moderate · 0 toss-up
Majority threshold
23
of 45 seats
Model stage
2 / 4
KPI scoring active
Six-Pillar KPI Rubric
Ground organisation
Candidate's local infrastructure, biraderi network, booth-agent coverage
Historical baseline
2011/2016/2021 results, volatility class, margin trajectory
Religious & sectarian dynamics
Biraderi and local religious bloc alignment
Structural factors
Voter roll growth, new voter demographics, female registration gap
Candidate strength
Incumbency, disqualification history, local standing vs main opponent
Social-media signal
Aggregated sentiment from public posts and local press